US unemployment rose; investors assess the Federal Reserve’s comments. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 11 March 2025.
US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech
- Recent data: US unemployment was 4.1% in February
- Market impact: new jobs were below forecast, while unemployment rose slightly, potentially putting some pressure on the US stock market in the near term
Fundamental analysis
The US unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in February, up from 4.0% in January, and remains well below the historical average of 5.7%. In this case, new jobs data was weaker than expected, while unemployment grew slightly. This may cause a moderately negative reaction in the stock market as it signals a weaker-than-expected labour market.
The Federal Reserve monitors the labour market when deciding on interest rate hikes or cuts. If job growth falls short of expectations, it could impact the regulator’s comments and the pace of monetary policy easing. Based on Jerome Powell’s statements, the regulator is concerned about an uptick in inflation after the introduction of new trade tariffs.
US 30 technical analysis
The US 30 stock index continues to decline within the downtrend. While a corrective rise is highly likely in the short term, it will unlikely change the medium-term trend.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 30 forecast: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 42,370.0, the index could plunge to 41,150.0
- Optimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 42,910.0 resistance level could drive the index to 43,890.0
US 30 technical analysis
US 500 technical analysis
The US 500 stock index has seen a significant increase in volatility, with the longest period with a movement of over 1% since the beginning of the year. Earlier, such volatility was only seen in 2020. The decline will likely continue in the medium term.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 500 forecast: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 5,735.0, the index could tumble to 5,395.0
- Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 5,790.0 resistance level could propel the index to 5,960.0
US 500 technical analysis
US Tech technical analysis
The US Tech index fell below the 200-day Moving Average for the first time in the last 500 trading days, losing 12% from an all-time high. According to the US Tech technical analysis, the downtrend could become medium-term.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
- Pessimistic US Tech forecast: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 20,030.0, the index could fall to 18,405.0
- Optimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout above the 20,240.0 resistance level could boost the index to 21,465.0
US Tech technical analysis
Asian index forecast: JP 225
- Recent data: Japan’s adjusted current account was 1.90 trillion JPY in January
- Market impact: the current indicator may cause a moderately negative reaction
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s adjusted current account (1.94 trillion JPY) in January was slightly below the forecast of 1.97 trillion JPY and well below the previous reading of 2.73 trillion JPY, signalling a weakening of foreign economic positions. For the Japanese stock market, this could cause a moderately negative reaction. However, the potential weakening of the yen could support the stocks of exporters. Further dynamics will depend on how market participants and the Bank of Japan interpret this data given the overall economic situation.
If market participants assess the decreased surplus as a signal of slowing exports or external earnings, the stocks of some export-oriented companies may correct. If the economy continues to weaken or is on the verge of recession, the regulator could maintain its loose monetary policy, which typically supports the stock market in the medium term.
JP 225 technical analysis
The JP 225 stock index reached its lowest level in the last six months. The price will highly likely break below the current support level at 36,260.00. The downtrend is becoming medium-term, with a new sideways channel unlikely to form.
The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:
- Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout below the 36,260.0 support level could push the index down to 35,115.0
- Optimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout above the 38,485.0 resistance level could propel the index to 39,625.0
JP 225 technical analysis
European index forecast: DE 40
- Recent data: Germany’s industrial production rose by 2% in January
- Market impact: the increase in industrial production indicates a recovery or growth in business activity in key sectors
Fundamental analysis
Although the DE 40 index is at all-time highs, the capitalisation of the German stock market in relative terms to the capitalisation of the global stock market is currently at its lowest level. The new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz intends to increase the country’s debt limit and create a special fund to stimulate the economy and increase defence spending. The size of the fund will be 500 billion EUR.
A stronger-than-expected increase of 2% in Germany’s industrial production in January is a positive signal for the stock market. It indicates a possible increase in profits of industrial companies and improved macroeconomic prospects, which may support stock prices in the short term.
DE 40 technical analysis
The DE 40 stock index is still moving in an uptrend. Bulls and bears are now actively fighting for a crucial resistance level, with the potential for further growth remaining significant.
The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:
- Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 22,380.0 support level could send the index down to 21,800.0
- Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 23,315.0 resistance level could drive the index to 23,670.0
DE 40 technical analysis
Summary
The US presidential administration announced the introduction of new tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, sending almost all global stock indices in a downtrend, except for the German DE 40. The Canadian province of Ontario has already announced retaliatory measures for the US, with China also set to impose trade restrictions.